PROBABILITY METHODS FOR ASSESSING FINANCIAL RISKS FOR ENTERPRISES

The paper reviews methods for risk assessment which could be employed in the financial management of enterprises. The set of methods proposed renders it possible to assess the impact which different risk factors upon the efficiency of implemented projects and the effect of antirisk measures on the financial performance of companies and thus identify the most efficient measures according to the criterion selected for project evaluation

Risk Analysis in Engineering Projects

Modern business processes are characterized by a large number of random factors that can affect the characteristics of internal and external processes. The created models use the method of calculating output parameters as an operation with random characteristics of factors that affect the final results. The processes and factors of the project are divided into permanent and random. Random processes are characterized by individual distributions and characteristics. The mathematical model of a business project is formed by a program that performs operations with the characteristics of random factors and risk factors that form the business project. The generated model allows you to calculate financial flows and balances at all stages of the project implementation, and determines various indicators of its effectiveness. To optimize these indicators, it is planned to introduce anti-risk measures. The model allows you to optimize the number of such activities, taking into account their cost and the degree of impact on the project performance indicators. Using the proposed method of analyzing business projects allows you to take into account possible random factors and risk factors and make the most optimal management decisions

Проблема потребительского рыночного спроса в экономической теории и её разрешение: методология, теория, верификация

The problem of multi-product consumer demand in modern neoclassical economic theory is that this theory contains a formal normative mathematical theory of individual demand, but does not contain a positive theory of market demand– an object of real interest for economists-practitioners and governments. The consequence of this failure is the lack of a positive theory of value / price, based on the theory of economic equilibrium, and reasonable methods for analysing market demand, in particular, the calculation of economic (analytical) demand indices reflecting consumer preferences of the population. The demand problem is analysed substantively and formally within the framework of general scientific methodology. It is shown that Deaton's "aggregation over consumers" condition, introduced in Stone's heuristic analysis of market demand, is superfluous. The paper presents basics of the author’s scientific holistic theory of market demand, based on the rejection of the unrealistic theory of the individual maximizing his (ordinal) utility function, and the non-parametric method of its verification, within the framework of which analytical indexes of prices and quantities of consumption of market demand are being built. Recent articles confirming the work of the theory on real, high-dimensional data are point-ed out

The positive resolution of the microeconomic problem of market demand: issues of methodology and verification

The problem of consumer demand in modern (micro)economic theory is that this theory contains a normative theory of individual demand, but does not contain a positive theory of market demand – an object of real interest for economists-practitioners and governments. This failure has led to failures in equilibrium theory and applied demand analysis. The article presents a methodological analysis of this demand problem, created within the framework of general scientific methodology and with rejection of the individual demand theory. The studying object of this theory, is a fuzzy set of market buyers regarded as a holistic object and called the ‘statistical ensemble of consumers.’ This theory formally retains the individual demand theory, but it is a positive theory verifiable by trade statistics. The verification method of the theory is a development of the Afriat-Varian non-parametric one with the simultaneous calculation of economic indexes reflecting the population preferences

Features of Propaganda and Manipulation in the Modern Information Space of New Media

This article discusses propaganda and manipulation as social phenomena and explores the features of its manifestations in the new media. The phenomenon of propaganda has been a recurrent topic of debate in public spaces over the past decades; there are dozens of international studies on the problems of its harm and necessity. The information environment constantly raises questions about the objectivity and reliability of the data distributed by the media, and their impact on public opinion and sociopolitical events in the world. With the development of communication technologies and the advent of new media, propaganda and manipulation reach a new level, gaining tremendous opportunities for influencing the individual and society. However, there is still no effective system of interaction with similar phenomena. Under the influence of constant informational impact in society, the system of values is rapidly changing and there is a reassessment of the main social constructs. The state, the sphere of education and the social sphere are need of new approaches to interacting with information and a changing society. The aims of the study are to identify the views of Russian youth regarding the current government and its policies, as well as determine the level of radicalism and protest potential of youth. This research discusses some propaganda technologies, especially relevant today. Examples of positive and negative propaganda are highlighted. Their specificity is substantiated and specific examples of such an impact are given, which entail significant socio-political events. The results of an empirical study have revealed mechanisms of the media influence on the individuals. The study has fixed the problem of radical political views formation, under the influence of the information environment created by new media. The necessity of creating an effective system to counter these phenomena in all spheres of social activity is substantiated. The problems and the direction requiring further research are formulated. Keywords: propaganda, manipulation, new media, propaganda technologies, information environment, content, social networks, Interne

Анализ малого и среднего предпринимательства: Построение производственных функций с оценкой эффективных фондов

Independent self-organizing small and medium-sized entrepreneurship (SMB) is usually considered to be the most important sector of the modern economy, evolving in according to market conditions and stimulating the economy to progress. But in recent years, works have appeared that criticize the defining of this economy sector as the "locomotive" of the entire market economy. Arguments for different points of view are often based on verbal judgment and comparisons between countries, despite significant differences in the definition of small (SB) and medium (MB) businesses across countries. In this paper, for comparative analysis of industrial segments of the sectors of SB, MB, and large enterprises (LE), we suggest the method for assessing the "effective funds" (EF) of production systems and constructing their production functions (PF). The concept EF are understood as a part of the book-value production funds that actually participate in the output. This indicator is not directly measurable, but it can be estimated based on data of production investment, the number of employees and the total output of enterprises of the studied system when constructing "capital" PF. The initial version of the method was proposed by us in 2012, and here a next modification is given, taking into account the specifics of the SMB reflection by Rosstat. The method is demonstrated on statistical data for the industrial segments of the SB, MB and LE sectors of the Russian economy

Behavior of concrete beams reinforced with FRP during bending

Article describes methods and results of experimental research for strain behavior, crack formation and fracture of concrete beams reinforced with fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) bars during bending moment action. 18 beams (3+3 series) reinforced with glass FRP (GFRP) and basalt (BFRP) 6, 10 and 14 mm in diameter were tested. Deflection in the middle of the beam, concrete and bars strain and ultrasonic transmission time for 4 routes were measured during tests besides visual inspection. Main crack formation occurred at 8-20% of the ultimate load for all beams. Crack formation was transition border to linear (elastic) straining at low bending stiffness. More than 15 times decrease in bending stiffness was seen for beam reinforced with two types of bars 6 mm in diameter compared to initial values. Existence of main cracks and major deflections is not allowed during design of bending elements. However small bending stiffness at linear elastic straining is a positive factor in case of «hard» loading and impact (pulsed) loading. It is possible to prevent structures collapse and people deaths at impact loading and cyclic «hard» loading by permitting crack formation in load bearing structures